In spite of the_____economic forecasts, manufact

预测（forecasting）是预计未来事件的一门艺术，一门科学。它包含采集历史数据并用某种数学模型来外推与将来。它也可以是对未来的主观或直觉的预期。它还可以是上述的综合，即经由经理良好判断调整的数学模型。进行预测时，没有一种预测方法会绝对有效。对一个企业在一种环境下是最好的预测方法，对另一企业或甚至本企业内另一部门却可能完全不适用。无论使用何种方法进行预测，预测的作用也是有限的，并不是完美无缺。但是，几乎没有一家企业可以不进行预测而只是等到事情发生时再采取行动，一个好的短期或长期的经营规划取决于对公司产品需求的预测。 按在规划未来业务方面企业使用可分三种类型的预测： 经济预测（economic forecasts）、技术预测(technological forecasts)、需求预测（demand forecasts）。1、 经济预测（economic forecasts）,通过预计通货膨胀率、货币供给、房屋开工率及其它有关指标来预测经济周期。2、 技术预测(technological forecasts),即预测会导致产生重要的新产品，从而带动新工厂和设备需求的技术进步。3、 需求预测（demand forecasts），为公司产品或服务需求预测。这些预测，也叫销售预测，决定公司的生产、生产能力及计划体系，并使公司财务、营销、人事作相应变动。按它包含的时间跨度来分类，也有三种分类：短期预测、中期预测、长期预测1、短期预测。短期预测时间跨度最多为1年，而通常少于3个月。它用于购货、工作安排、所需员工、工作指定和生产水平的计划工作。2、中期预测。中期预测的时间跨度通常是从3个月到3年。它用于销售计划、生产计划和预算、现金预算和分析不同作业方案。3、长期预测。长期预测的时间跨度通常为3年及3年以上。它用于规划新产品、资本支出、生产设备安装或天职，及研究与发展。中期预测和长期预测与短期预测的区别主要体现在以下三个方面：第一，中长期预测要处理更多的综合性问题并主要为产品、工厂、工序的管理决策提供支持；第二，短期预测采用的方法通常与长期预测采用的方法不同。如移动平均法、指数平滑法和趋势外推法等为短期预测所常用的方法。更概括性、更少量化的方法用于确定诸如是否将一种新产品投产，如激光唱片等；第三，短期预测往往比长期预测更精确些。影响需求的因素每天都在发生变化，因此当时间跨度延长时，预测精确度往往随之下降。 预测方法有四种基本的类型：定性预测、时间序列分析、因果联系法和模拟。定性预测 定性预测属于主观判断，它基于估计和评价。常见的定性预测方法包括：一般预测、市场调研法、小组讨论法、历史类比、德尔菲法等。时间序列分析 时间序列分析是建立在这样一个设定基础上的,与过去需求相关的历史数据可用于预测未来的需求。历史数据可能包含诸如趋势、季节、周期等因素。常见的时间序列分析方法主要有：简单移动平均、加权移动平均、指数平滑、回归分析、鲍克斯·詹金斯法、西斯金时间序列等。因果联系法 因果联系是假定需求与某些内在因素或周围环境的外部因素有关。常见的因果联系法主要有：回归分析、经济模型、投入产出模型、行指标等。模拟 模拟模型允许预测人员对预测的条件作一定程度的假设。 无论采用何种预测方法，进行预测时都必须遵循下面的几个步骤：1、确定预测的用途。这一步要确定我们进行预测所要达到什么样的的目标。2、选择预测对象。这一步要确定我们需要对什么对象进行预测。例如，生产预测中通常需要对公司产品的市场需求进行预测从而为公司指定生产作业计划提供资料。3、决定预测的时间跨度。这一步要确定所进行的预测的时间跨度是短期、中期、还是长期？4、选择预测模型。这一步要根据索要预测的对象的特点和预测的性质选择一种合适的预测模型来进行下一步的预测。5、收集预测所需的数据。收集预测所需数据时，一定要保证这些数据资料的准确性和可靠性。6、验证预测模型。这一步是要确定我们选择的预测模型对于我们要进行的预测是否有效。7、做出预测。这一步里，我们要根据前面收集的相关的数据资料和确定的预测模型对我们需要预测的对象做出合理的预测。8、将预测结果付诸实际应用。按照前面几步，我们已经对所需要预测的对象做出了预测，这一步，我们就需要将得到的预测结果应用到实际中去，从而达到我们进行预测的目标。比如说，生产预测中，我们对未来市场对本企业产品的需求量进行了预测之后，就需要根据这些预测来确定本企业的生产计划和排程。上面这些步骤系统总结了开始、设计和应用一项预测的各环节。如果是定期做预测，数据则应定期收集。实际运算则可由计算机进行。

这个回答真好。预测方法也多。

】制造系统是一个将生产要素转变成离散型产品的输入输出系统。

乙肝替诺福韦二代（TAF），抑制病毒的，俗称TAF，国内是1180一瓶，印度. 全球 .药房的商城里290一瓶

One of the great modern science stories is the so-called "Butterfly Effect".It suggests that the weather is so sensitive to tiny changes,that something as microscopic as a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil could set off a tornado in Texas.It"s a great bit of Pop Science that has entered the common consciousness - but it"s probably wrong. Weather is that stuff that happens in the 5 million billion tonnes of air and water vapour that wraps around our planet in a thin layer. Weather is big business on our planet.According to the World Meteorological Organisation,accurate weather forecasts improve the global economy by about $80 billion each year.Every time an aeroplane flight cancellation is avoided,that saves around $80,000 - and every time a flight is not diverted,that saves $300,000. The modern science of weather predictions probably began in 1913,with the pacifist,physicist and mathematician,Lewis Fry Richardson.World War I broke out the next year,and he found a way to help without violating his personal beliefs - he enlisted as an ambulance driver with the French Army.In his spare time,he would sit down and work out tens of thousands of laborious pencil-and-paper weather calculations.A Norwegian meteorologist had already published very detailed weather data for an area in and around central Germany on May 20,1910 - some four years earlier.Richardson knew what the weather turned out to be,and he was trying to develop a mathematical model that could successfully use this data to "predict" what actually turned out.But he never could get his model to work. Richardson thought it was because he didn"t have enough data.He proposed to divide the surface of the Earth into tens of thousands of little cells,and gather all possible weather data from each cell.He wrote about this in 1922 in his book called Weather Prediction By Numerical Process.Unfortunately,it was impossible to do the calculations fast enough by pencil and paper. But then came the Second World War and "unbustable" German war codes and the Atom Bomb - and computers were invented to solve both those problems.In 1950,John von Neumann,one of the fathers of modern computing,realised that his computers were fast enough to solve Richardson"s weather problem.By 1953,the ENIAC computer at Princeton University had run Richardson"s equations to make moderately successful predictions of the weather.And so the modern age of weather prediction was born. Today we have a massive network of weather stations on land and buoys at sea,planes and balloons in the air,and satellites looking down from space.They all gather data to feed into these increasingly sophisticated mathematical models of the weather. But in 1972,Ed Lorenz,a meteorologist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology said it might be impossible to be truly accurate.He was the first to point out the role of Chaos in weather forecasting,and he came up with that imaginative example of the butterfly wing in Brazil.In fact,he invented the term,"butterfly effect". Now here"s a very important point. With Chaos Theory,the error starts small and then gets bigger with time and then gets huge.But this is not,repeat NOT,what happens with the weather. In weather forecasts,the error becomes very large very rapidly,and then begins to tail off - so most of the error in the weather forecasts is not related to Chaos Theory. This really bothered David Orrell,a mathematician at the University College in London.He and his fellow mathematicians started thinking about what would happen if the actual mathematical models that the meteorologists use to predict the weather were wrong.They proved a mathematical theorem that predicted exactly how,if a model really was wrong,its errors would grow as time progressed.In fact,these errors should follow a "Square Root Law" - growing very rapidly at first,and then slowing down after a few days.And believe it or not,this is how the errors in the weather forecasts behave. In other words,according to David Orrell,the main thing stopping us from getting accurate weather forecasts three days down the line is not the Butterfly Effect (which is real),but the errors in the models. His theory can"t say where the errors are,only that there are errors.And once the mathematicians and the meteorologists get together and come up with better models of the weather,they should be able to make dead accurate forecasts up to three days down the line.The Chaos effects will then begin to kick in after about a week or so. Now David Orrell might be wrong,or he might be right.But if he is right,the meteorologists shouldn"t feel too worried.After all,trying to mathematically model the 5 million billion tonnes of turbulent atmosphere and water vapour is probably one of the most difficult computing problems ever attempted in the history of the human race. The only thing that we can be sure of is that the weather will always give us something to talk about...

Thank you to listen to weather forecasts

become primary productoccupation rate sales exhibition college students orientedforecasts on the markets home and abroad forecasts on the exhibition dayhave fairly competitive advantage

BABJ 是 China Meteorological Administration (CMA) 的代号类似的预报中心代号还有：Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) ： CWAOEuropean Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ： ECMFJapan Meteorological Agency (JMA) ： RJTDKorea Meteorological Administration (KMA) ： RKSLShanghai Typhoon Institute (STI) of CMA ： SHTMUS National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) ： KWBC

Weather Forecast-天气预报：）~ Weather forecasts are of great help to us. In rural areas, farmers Wshow much concern about the weather. They want to know when it will rain, when it will snow and whether their crops may be injured by frost or hail. Usually the weather forecasts can help them to learn the information they need bef. rehand and enable them to avoid heavy losses. In cities, people benefit from weather forecasts. They will early umbrellas or raincoats with them as they go to work or to school. They will change their clothes when weather changes. And weather forecasts mean even more to pilots of airplanes, drivers of cars, captains of ships and military leaders. Usually weather forecasts are correct, and therefore they enjoy the trust of most people. But weather is affected by a lot of factors and is very hard to be forecast very exactly each time. We are grateful to those who let us know the weather in advance, for they work day and night to collect and analyze various data. Some of them have to do their job at observation posts in high mountains in terrible surroundings for working and living.

现在，对未来五天的天气预报与大约二十年前对未来两天的预报一样准确这是as…as引导的比较状语从句，are与were都是句中的谓语

一个事实分离预测可能还可以用来消除一些其他综合收入（保监处）项目现时聘用。根据现行的公认会计准则，涨幅5美元的衍生举行的现金流量避险保监处出现在今年的价值所衍生的变化。在今年的套期保值交易收益的影响， 5元是退出保险业监理处和投入收益。根据我们的建议， intertemioral转移预测的事实可以被视为不再需要这种回收。如果我们要分类，所有的价值重估的预测，因为缺乏实际汇率，那么可以考虑区分官方和非官方的预测。官方预测，其预测的后续运算明确的规则。官方预测不一定提高预报的准确性，但他们提供的标准化，使预测可能更容易理解，更难以操纵，并不太可能被用来作为依据的诉讼。 更广泛的一点是，区分事实和预测的微妙和更持续的比我们的二元分类规则建议。迄今为止，我们已经考虑两列细目，如果交易被列为任何事实或预测。为什么不能三，四，五栏或？交易的“预测能力”可以依靠的视野和预测的各类不确定性。例如，发行的债券的公司预计将在到期时支付。数额可以很容易地预测，如果发行人而言，作出自己的预测，假定发行是将关注的问题。另一方面，收取的长期贷款，供应商更难预测。半个世纪以来，美国会计惯例，公司已将项目纳入现有的（一年内）和noncurrent （一年以上） 。如果延长，以进一步突出了内部的不确定性预期是可取的，那么short-term/long-term分类似乎是一个合理的开端。 结论 最近的会计丑闻促使国会议员和监管机构重新评估现有的规定和义务的财务报告和人民谁他们做好准备。我们认为，这也是时间重新评估的基本财务报告的模式。随着时间的推移，越来越多的相关信息已新增至审计的财务报表。增加的现实意义是在成本降低的可靠性。我们提出了跨财务报表，单独的事实预测，以此提醒投资者的可靠性的各种财务报表数字。我们希望其他国家将延长我们的工作： （ 1 ）更明确地处理公平的价值观念和（ 2 ）探索替代reliabilityoriented分类和披露。

u3000u3000Weather Forecastu3000u3000Weather forecasts are of great help to us. In rural areas, farmers Wshow much concern about the weather. They want to know when it will rain, when it will snow and whether their crops may be injured by frost or hail. Usually the weather forecasts can help them to learn the information they need bef. rehand and enable them to avoid heavy losses. In cities, people benefit from weather forecasts. They will early umbrellas or raincoats with them as they go to work or to school. They will change their clothes when weather changes. And weather forecasts mean even more to pilots of airplanes, drivers of cars, captains of ships and military leaders.u3000u3000Usually weather forecasts are correct, and therefore they enjoy the trust of most people. But weather is affected by a lot of factors and is very hard to be forecast very exactly each time.u3000u3000We are grateful to those who let us know the weather in advance, for they work day and night to collect and analyze various data. Some of them have to do their job at observation posts in high mountains in terrible surroundings for working and living.u3000u3000good luck

分类: 教育/科学 >> 外语学习 问题描述: 告诉偶吧！谢谢了！！！用英语介绍它的大小、颜色、种类、故事、生长地。。。。。。 解析: One of the great modern science stories is the so-called "Butterfly Effect". It suggests that the weather is so sensitive to tiny changes, that something as microscopic as a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil could set off a tornado in Texas. It"s a great bit of Pop Science that has entered the mon consciousness - but it"s probably wrong. Weather is that stuff that happens in the 5 million billion tonnes of air and water vapour that wraps around our pla in a thin layer. Weather is big business on our pla. According to the World Meteorological Organisation, accurate weather forecasts improve the global economy by about $80 billion each year. Every time an aeroplane flight cancellation is avoided, that saves around $80,000 - and every time a flight is not diverted, that saves $300,000. The modern science of weather predictions probably began in 1913, with the pacifist, physicist and mathematician, Lewis Fry Richardson. World War I broke out the next year, and he found a way to help without violating his personal beliefs - he enlisted as an ambulance driver with the French Army. In his spare time, he would sit down and work out tens of thousands of laborious pencil-and-paper weather calculations. A Norwegian meteorologist had already published very detailed weather data for an area in and around central Germany on May 20, 1910 - some four years earlier. Richardson knew what the weather turned out to be, and he was trying to develop a mathematical model that could successfully use this data to "predict" what actually turned out. But he never could get his model to work. Richardson thought it was because he didn"t have enough data. He proposed to divide the surface of the Earth into tens of thousands of little cells, and gather all possible weather data from each cell. He wrote about this in 1922 in his book called Weather Prediction By Numerical Process. Unfortunately, it was impossible to do the calculations fast enough by pencil and paper. But then came the Second World War and "unbustable" German war codes and the Atom Bomb - and puters were invented to solve both those problems. In 1950, John von Neumann, one of the fathers of modern puting, realised that his puters were fast enough to solve Richardson"s weather problem. By 1953, the ENIAC puter at Princeton University had run Richardson"s equations to make moderately successful predictions of the weather. And so the modern age of weather prediction was born. Today we have a massive neork of weather stations on land and buoys at sea, planes and balloons in the air, and satellites looking down from space. They all gather data to feed into these increasingly sophisticated mathematical models of the weather. But in 1972, Ed Lorenz, a meteorologist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology said it might be impossible to be truly accurate. He was the first to point out the role of Chaos in weather forecasting, and he came up with that imaginative example of the butterfly wing in Brazil. In fact, he invented the term, "butterfly effect". Now here"s a very important point. With Chaos Theory, the error starts *** all and then gets bigger with time and then gets huge. But this is not, repeat NOT, what happens with the weather. In weather forecasts, the error bees very large very rapidly, and then begins to tail off - so most of the error in the weather forecasts is not related to Chaos Theory. This really bothered David Orrell, a mathematician at the University College in London. He and his fellow mathematicians started thinking about what would happen if the actual mathematical models that the meteorologists use to predict the weather were wrong. They proved a mathematical theorem that predicted exactly how, if a model really was wrong, its errors would grow as time progressed. In fact, these errors should follow a "Square Root Law" - growing very rapidly at first, and then slowing down after a few days. And believe it or not, this is how the errors in the weather forecasts behave. In other words, according to David Orrell, the main thing stopping us from getting accurate weather forecasts three days down the line is not the Butterfly Effect (which is real), but the errors in the models. His theory can"t say where the errors are, only that there are errors. And once the mathematicians and the meteorologists get together and e up with better models of the weather, they should be able to make dead accurate forecasts up to three days down the line. The Chaos effects will then begin to kick in after about a week or so. Now David Orrell might be wrong, or he might be right. But if he is right, the meteorologists shouldn"t feel too worried. After all, trying to mathematically model the 5 million billion tonnes of turbulent atmosphere and water vapour is probably one of the most difficult puting problems ever attempted in the history of the human race. The only thing that we can be sure of is that the weather will always give us something to talk about...

　　Weather Forecast-天气预报　　Weather forecasts are of great help to us. In rural areas, farmers Wshow much concern about the weather. They want to know when it will rain, when it will snow and whether their crops may be injured by frost or hail. Usually the weather forecasts can help them to learn the information they need bef. rehand and enable them to avoid heavy losses. In cities, people benefit from weather forecasts. They will early umbrellas or raincoats with them as they go to work or to school. They will change their clothes when weather changes. And weather forecasts mean even more to pilots of airplanes, drivers of cars, captains of ships and military leaders.　　Usually weather forecasts are correct, and therefore they enjoy the trust of most people. But weather is affected by a lot of factors and is very hard to be forecast very exactly each time.　　We are grateful to those who let us know the weather in advance, for they work day and night to collect and analyze various data. Some of them have to do their job at observation posts in high mountains in terrible surroundings for working and living.

Weather forecasts are of great help to us. In rural areas, farmers Wshow much concern about the weather. They want to know when it will rain, when it will snow and whether their crops may be injured by frost or hail. Usually the weather forecasts can help them to learn the information they need bef. rehand and enable them to avoid heavy losses. In cities, people benefit from weather forecasts. They will early umbrellas or raincoats with them as they go to work or to school. They will change their clothes when weather changes. And weather forecasts mean even more to pilots of airplanes, drivers of cars, captains of ships and military leaders.u3000u3000Usually weather forecasts are correct, and therefore they enjoy the trust of most people. But weather is affected by a lot of factors and is very hard to be forecast very exactly each time.u3000u3000We are grateful to those who let us know the weather in advance, for they work day and night to collect and analyze various data. Some of them have to do their job at observation posts in high mountains in terrible surroundings for working and living.

你可以先把TOP去了,然后你就明白了,TOP是修饰END的,简单了吧?

make evidence-based forecasts about the situations以证据为基础，可以预测我们的后代会发现自己的处境正对应句首的As so often, the past holds the key to the future通常，过去的经验就是把握未来的钥匙，用经验和规律来指导未来。这是哲学问题。经验论。understand？

应译为：accrual anomaly【业绩预告对中国股市有效性的影响——基于应计异象的实证检验Title: Effect of management earnings forecasts on the efficiency of the Chinese stock market:Evidence based on the accrual anomaly 作者: 宋云玲； 罗玫； 清华大学经济管理学院会计系； Author(s): SONG Yunling; LUO Mei Department of Accounting,School of Economics and Management,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China 摘要: 为考察强制性业绩预告能否提高中国股市的有效性,按照应计由低到高将样本等分成10个组合,套利组合是买入应计最低一组的同时卖出应计最高一组,进行大样本检验。结果显示:预告样本套利组合持有半年的超额收益显著为正(9%),持有一年的超额收益不显著区别于0;无预告的样本套利组合的结果则相反。在控制影响超额收益的其他因素之后,预告样本的套利组合仍然提前半年获得显著超额收益。这说明,三季报中的业绩预告可以使预告样本的应计异象提前消失,从而提高了股票市场的有效性。 Abstract: This paper examines whether the compulsory disclosure policy can improve the efficiency of the Chinese stock market.Hedge portfolios are formed according to the deciles of accounting accruals with a long position on the lowest and a short position on the highest.Results from a large sample show that abnormal returns of the hedge portfolios formed on firms with management earnings forecasts in third-quarter reports are significantly positive(9%) over the first half year but insignificantly different from zero the whole one year.Abnormal returns of the hedge portfolios formed on firms that did not make management earnings forecasts in third-quarter reports show the opposite results.Moreover,the results are robust in multivariate regressions.Therefore,regulatory management earnings forecasts can help investors correct accrual mispricing earlier and improve stock market efficiencies. 】还有【会计盈余的持续性丶投资者定价与市场效率——基于资本市场应计异象的研究】等等，都有英文摘要的。

vt.预报，预测； 预示vi.预报，预测n.预报； 预言复数： forecasts 过去式： forecast forecasted 过去分词： forecast forecasted 现在分词： forecasting 第三人称单数： forecasts

预测（forecasting）是预计未来事件的一门艺术，一门科学。它包含采集历史数据并用某种数学模型来外推与将来。它也可以是对未来的主观或直觉的预期。它还可以是上述的综合，即经由经理良好判断调整的数学模型。 　　进行预测时，没有一种预测方法会绝对有效。对一个企业在一种环境下是最好的预测方法，对另一企业或甚至本企业内另一部门却可能完全不适用。无论使用何种方法进行预测，预测的作用也是有限的，并不是完美无缺。但是，几乎没有一家企业可以不进行预测而只是等到事情发生时再采取行动，一个好的短期或长期的经营规划取决于对公司产品需求的预测 经济预测（economic forecasts）,通过预计通货膨胀率、货币供给、房屋开工率及其它有关指标来预测经济周期。 预测方法有四种基本的类型：定性预测、时间序列分析、因果联系法和模拟。 　　定性预测 定性预测属于主观判断，它基于估计和评价。常见的定性预测方法包括：一般预测、市场调研法、小组讨论法、历史类比、德尔菲法等。 　　时间序列分析 时间序列分析是建立在这样一个设定基础上的,与过去需求相关的历史数据可用于预测未来的需求。历史数据可能包含诸如趋势、季节、周期等因素。常见的时间序列分析方法主要有：简单移动平均、加权移动平均、指数平滑、回归分析、鲍克斯·詹金斯法、西斯金时间序列等。 　　因果联系法 因果联系是假定需求与某些内在因素或周围环境的外部因素有关。常见的因果联系法主要有：回归分析、经济模型、投入产出模型、行指标等。 　　模拟 模拟模型允许预测人员对预测的条件作一定程度的假设评论 | 给

没有什么预测是能套用公式的，我是学经济学的

天津的天气

Weather Forecast A cold front is swinging in from Canada while a warm front is moving up from the Pacific. Meanwhile, precipitation is developing in the southern part of the state while strong wind is moving down from the north. There could be 3 to 5 inches of snow on Thursday or Friday if it gets cold enough. Otherwise there could be havey rain. Yet there still exists the possibility that the coulds may be pushed out by wind well before then. So frankly we have no idea whatsoever on what the weather will be like next week. This is roughly the weather forecast on a local channel here in Portland during the weekend...one of the most bizarre and honest weather forecasts I"ve ever watched. It is refreshing to see that at least one of these so-called meteorologists (AKA weather men ... or women) understands the truth about the business -- one can never predict the weather, just like one can never predict life. 翻译太麻烦了

简单的说，就是将异动平均线平滑化。白线相对于黄线短期，柱体是他们的差额值。当然，这样讲容易理解但是不太恰当。官方的解释看：http://baike.baidu.com/view/184410.html?wtp=tt

大学英语作文 WeatherForecast-天气预报 Weatherforecastsareofgreathelptous.Inruralareas,farmersWshowmuchconcernabouttheweather.Theywanttoknowwhenitwillrain,whenitwillsnowandwhethertheircropsmaybeinjuredbyfrostorhail.Usuallytheweatherforecastscanhelpthemtolearntheinformationtheyneedbef.rehandandenablethemtoavoidheavylosses.Incities,peoplebenefitfromweatherforecasts.Theywillearlyumbrellasorraincoatswiththemastheygotoworkortoschool.Theywillchangetheirclotheswhenweatherchanges.Andweatherforecastsmeanevenmoretopilotsofairplanes,driversofcars,captainsofshipsandmilitaryleaders. Usuallyweatherforecastsarecorrect,andthereforetheyenjoythetrustofmostpeople.Butweatherisaffectedbyalotoffactorsandisveryhardtobeforecastveryexactlyeachtime. Wearegratefultothosewholetusknowtheweatherinadvance,fortheyworkdayandnighttocollectandanalyzevariousdata.Someofthemhavetodotheirjobatobservationpostsinhighmountainsinterriblesurroundingsforworkingandliving. 初中WeatherForecast Let"stakealookattheweatherinShanxiProvinceforthenext24hours.Taiyuanwouldbecloudyatthetimewiththetemperaturefromeighteentotwenty-eight.AstrongwindwouldreachDatong,whichcouldcausemuchrain,Thetemperaturewouldbesixteentotwenty-six.Yangquanwouldbesunnywiththehighesttemperatureofthirtydegree.Linfenwouldbewindyanditstemperaturewouldbetwenty-threetothirty-two.WewouldhaveasunnyandhotdayinYuncheng.Itstemperaturewouldstaybetweentwenty-eighttothirty-four.下面的比较符合要求~

一、中文概述 宏观经济学是以国民经济总过程的活动为研究对象，因为主要考察就业总水平、国民总收入等经济总量，因此，宏观经济学也被称作就业理论或收入理论。 宏观经济学和微观经济学并不分开，“宏观”就是在“微观”的基本思维基础上发展的。但“宏观”又区别于“微观”。“微观”研究的是某个组织、部门或个人在经济社会上怎么样作出决策，以及这些决策会对经济社会有什么影响。而“宏观”则是研究整个的经济社会如何运作，并找出办法，让经济社会运行得更加稳定、发展得更快。 宏观经济学存在着许多流派、分支，甚至分歧（意见、观点不同）。比较出名的有凯恩斯主义、货币主义等等。其不能存在比较大的“共同观点”，笔者认为，极可能由于宏观经济学中的观点难以用事实证明。尽管“宏观”也可以建立像物理、化学和气象等的模型，但“宏观”模型是很难用现实去说明是否正确。不可能只是为了证明“宏观”的某个观点是否正确，而去有意识的“调节”、“操作”和干涉经济社会的运行。比如说，不可能为了说明“失业率有多大才会对经济社会产生不稳定的影响”，而去真的让一些人民失业。这些事情，不单是不可能去做，而且也做不到。 因此，宏观经济学的研究是很复杂、很困难的。 二、英文概述 Macroeconomics is a branch of economics that deals with the performance, structure, and behavior of a national or regional economy as a whole.Along with microeconomics, macroeconomics is one of the two most general fields in economics. Macroeconomists study aggregated indicators such as GDP, unemployment rates, and price indices to understand how the whole economy functions. Macroeconomists develop models that explain the relationship between such factors as national income, output, consumption, unemployment, inflation, savings, investment, international trade and international finance. In contrast, microeconomics is primarily focused on the actions of individual agents, such as firms and consumers, and how their behavior determines prices and quantities in specific markets. While macroeconomics is a broad field of study, there are two areas of research that are emblematic of the discipline: the attempt to understand the causes and consequences of short-run fluctuations in national income (the business cycle), and the attempt to understand the determinants of long-run economic growth (increases in national income). Macroeconomic models and their forecasts are used by both governments and large corporations to assist in the development and evaluation of economic policy and business strategy.

投资顾问的意思

1. Radio stations and Newspapers. 2. People want to make plans. 3. In bad weather, they must protect their crops. 4. Yes, they need. Because in bad weather, they cannot go out to fish. 5. Yes, we can. 答案不唯一

MACD——指数平滑异同移动平均线一、简介：指数平滑异同移动平均线,又称指数离差指标，是移动平均线原理的进一步发展。这一技术分析工具自1971年由查拉尔德拉徘尔创造出来之后，一直深受股市投资者的欢迎。MACD的原理是运用短期（快速）和长期（慢速）移动平均线聚合和分散的征兆加以双重平滑运算，用来研判买进与卖出的时机，在股市中这一指标有较大的实际意义。根据移动平均线的特性，在一段持续的涨势中短期移动平均线和长期移动平均线之间的距离将愈拉愈远，两者间的乖离越来越大，涨势如果趋向缓慢，两者间的距离也必然缩小，甚至互相交叉，发出卖出信号。同样，在持续的跌势中，短期线在长期线之下，相互之间的距离越来越远，如果跌势减缓，两者之间的距离也将缩小，最后交叉发出买入信号。二、计算公式：在一般的情况下，快速EMA一般选6日，慢速EMA一般选12日，此时差离值（DIF）的计算为：DIF＝EMA6－EMA12至于差离值（DIF）缩小到何种程度才真正是行情反转的信号，一般情况下，MACD的反转信号为差离值的9日移动平均值，“差离平均值”用DEA来表示.计算得出的DIF与DEA为正值或负值，因而形成在0轴线上下移动的两条快速与慢速线，为了方便判断常用DIF减去DEA，并绘出柱状图。如果柱状图上正值不断扩大说明上涨持续，负值不断扩大说明下跌持续，只有柱状在0轴线附近时才表明形势有可能反转。三、使用原则：1.差离值（DIF）向上突破MACD时为买进信号，差离值（DIF）向下跌破MACD时为卖出信号.2.差离值（DIF）与MACD在0轴之上时，市场趋向为多头市场，两者在0轴之下时则应获利了结。DIF和MACD在0轴以下时，入市策略应以卖出为主，DIF若向下跌破MACD时可向上突破，空头宜暂时平仓。3.股价处于上升的多头形势时，如DIF远离MACD，造成两线间乖离率加大，多头应分批了结。4.股价或指数盘整之时常会出现DIF与MACD交错，可以不必理会，只有在乖离率加大时方可视为盘整局面的突破。5.不管是从“差离值”的交叉还是从“差离值柱线”都可以发现背离信号的使用价值。所谓“背离”就是在K线图或其他诸如条形图、柱状图上出现一头比一头高的头部，在MACD的图形上却出现一头比一头低的头部；或相反，在K线图或其它图形上出现一底比一底低，在MACD的图形上却出现一底比一底高，出现这两种背离时，前者一般为跌势信号，后者则为上升信号。四、缺陷：1.由于MACD是一项长线指标,买进或卖出点和最高最低价之间的价差较大.当行情忽上忽下或盘整时,买卖信号会过于频繁.2.当出现急升急跌行情时,MACD来不及反映,信号滞后.

才会使他拖延这么许久。还two men sweating and

1.Do you like to have flowers in your home?---yes, my mum likes flowers, so there are many different kinds of flowers on the balcony and they are colorful. they make my house look more pretty.Do you ever grow flowers at home?---i don"t know how to plant flowers. but i help mum take care of them, like watering them.Do many people in your country grow flowers at home?---i don"t think so. houses in China are not so big, so there are not any room for flowerpots. so normally, they don;t have flowers.2.What"s the weather usually like in your hometown?---weather in guangzhou is typical tropic. three of the four seasons are hot, and the temperature in cool winter is about 10 centigrade degrees. but people feel a little bit cold for it is very humid in winter.What"s your favourite season? why?---i like the winter most, for it is the only season that we feel cool and the time we can wear caftan. and we can have a very special view of winter differing from other seasons.Do you like snow? why?---i like snow for i"ve never seen the real snow and i;m curous about it. it never snows in guangzhou.Do you usually watch the weather forecasts?---i seldom watch the weather forecast. i have an umbrella in my schoolbag. so it doesn"t matter whether it is sunny or rainy. but if i went out to travel, i surely would pay attention to it.What sort of weather do you least like?---when it rains dogs and cats. because i can"t go out to play ball. i just stay at home or in the dorm, it is boring. and the mood would always be affected. so i was always unhappy when the kind of weather came.In China, are there ever any problems caused by the weather?yes. every summer, i could know many damages, like the heavy rain causing flood which submerged many places. these damages always cause great lost.3.Do you pla any musical instruments?---yes. i learned the piano in my premary school. and i could play several melody after learning for some years. personally speaking, now i dont play it any more and i think it is a hard process to learn how to play an instrument, but my sense of music was brought up and i now have ability of aesthetic appreciation. i didn"t regret to learn it, on the contrary, i think it is really important to learn to play instruments for young children.What musical instrument would you like to learn if ou had the time to the chance to learn more?---i think it is violin.i watched a serial recently, in the serial, the posture of the hostess was elegant when she played violin. that makes me be interested in violin.What musical instrument do children in China most often learn?---generally speaking, parents want their children to learn the piano. but i don"t this is good. for the piano is expensive. and by the way, not every children is good at it. parents should decide which one their children should learn depending on their specialties.Do you think schools should teach children how to play a musical instrument?---i think it of no necessary. because when children learn to play, they should have their own instruments, and this could impose stress on the non-rich families. also, if children were forced to learn one kind of instruments, they would finally lose their interest on others. i think normal music class is enough when studying at school. u2022 Do you like to have flowers in your home?Yes，my mother is crazy about planting/growing flowers so on the balcony of my home, there are many kinds of flowers. From a distance, it is colourful and makes my home beautiful.u2022 Do you (ever) grow flowers at home? I don"t know how to plant/grow flower but I always help my mother look after the flowers and water them.u2022 Do many people in your country grow flowers at home?I don"t think (that) there are many people growing flowers at home because the rooms in China are not big enough to place too many flowers. Generally speaking, people don"t grow flowers at home. u2022 What"s the weather (usually) like in your hometown?Guangzhou is in tropical area. Three seasons are very warm. The cool winter is still above 10 degree centigrade. However, because the wet weather, you can feel a bit cold in winter.u2022 What"s your favourite season? (Why?) My favourite season is winter because winter is the only season (that) I can feel cool and I should wear long-sleeved cloth so in winter, I can see different views from the other seasons.u2022 Do you like snow? (Why?) I like snow because I have never seen a real snow so I feel curious about snow. Guangzhou has never snowed beforeu2022 Do you usually watch the weather forecasts? In general, I don"t watch weather report because I usually carry my school bag in which there is an umbrella so it doesn"t matter to me no matter whether the weather is sunny or snowy. However, if I will go out to travel, I will watch the weather forecast. u2022 What sort of weather do you least like? /I hate heavy rain because it means I can"t go out and play basketball. What I can do is just stay at home or dormitory, which is really boring. Because of this, my mood will be affected. Under this weather, I always feel unhappy. u2022 In China, are there ever any problems caused by the weather? (= caused by extreme weather?)Yes. Every summer, I always see from news that because of flood, causing by continuous heavy rain, many places are submerged and many people lose great number of propertiesDo you play any musical instruments? Yes。When I was in primary school, I joined a piano class. After several years, although I don"t get a high level, I can perform much music. To myself, I don"t play it now and learning an instrument is really a pain. However, it cultivates my sense of music and lets me have the ability to appreciate the music. I have never regretted to learn it and I think learning a instrument is important to student from primary schoolWhat musical instrument would you like to learn (if you had the time or the chance to learn one)? I desire to learn violin. Recently, I watched a TV series. The leading actress playing violin is very elegant. It attracts my interest to learn violin.u2022 What musical instrument do children in China most often learn? Most parents will choose violin for their children to learn. However, I don"t think it"s a good idea. Pianos are very expensive and not everyone is suitable to learn piano. Parents should depend on the conditions of children when choosing instruments for their kids to learn,Do you think schools should teach children how to play a musical instrument?I don"t think so because teaching instrument means every student has to buy instrument. This will increase the burden of the families which are not very rich. Also, forcing them to learn the instruments will limit their interest of instrument. I think it"s enough for school to have music theory class.

rsi 相对强弱指标(Relative Strenth Index)原理： 用向上波动幅度和总波动幅度的比值来描述走势强弱。算法：先求相对强弱值rsi＝N日内收盘价上涨幅度总和／上涨下跌幅度总和乘以100用法：RSI在50以上准确性较高1.6日RSI向上突破85，超买；向下跌破15，超卖2.盘整时，RSI一底比一底高，多头势强，后市可能续涨；反之，是卖出信号3.股价尚在盘整阶段，而RSI已整理完成，股价将随之突破4.6日RSI向上突破12日RSI，卖进信号；反之，卖出信号。参数：N1、N2、N3　统计天数，一般取6、12、24kdj 随机指标原理：用目前股价在近阶段股价分布中的相对位置来预测可能发生的趋势反转。算法：对每一交易日求RSV(未成熟随机值)RSV=(收盘价－最近N日最低价)/(最近N日最高价－ 最近N日最低价)×100K线：RSV的M1日移动平均 D线：K值的M2日移动平均J线：3×D－2×K参数：N、M1、M2 天数，一般取9、3、3用法： 1.D>80，超买；D<20，超卖；J>100%超卖；J<10%超卖 2.线K向上突破线D，买进信号；线K向下跌破线D，卖出信号。 3.线K与线D的交叉发生在70以上，30以下，才有效。 4.KD指标不适于发行量小，交易不活跃的股票； 5.KD指标对大盘和热门大盘股有极高准确性。macd 平滑异同平均线(Moving Average Convergence Divergence)原理： MACD（Moving Average Convergence Divergence）中文名称：平滑异同移动平均线，是由Gerald Appel首先在Systems And Forecasts一书中发表，主要是利用长短期的二条平滑平均线，计算两者之间的差离值，作为研判行情买卖之依据。算法：DIFF线　收盘价短期、长期指数平滑移动平均线间的差DEA线　 DIFF线的M日指数平滑移动平均线MACD线　DIFF线与DEA线的差，彩色柱状线参数：SHORT(短期)、LONG(长期)、M 天数，一般为12、26、9用法：1.DIFF、DEA均为正，DIFF向上突破DEA，买入信号。2.DIFF、DEA均为负，DIFF向下跌破DEA，卖出信号。3.DEA线与K线发生背离，行情反转信号。4.分析MACD柱状线，由正变负，卖出信号；由负变正，买入信号。

小题1:A小题2:C小题3:B小题4:D小题5:D 试题解析:本文大意：现在卫星帮助预报天气 ，它们在太空里，能接触到世界的任一角落。卫星拍大气的照片，因为天气是在那儿形成的。卫星把照片发送到气象站。从照片上，科学家们能判断天气会如何变化。如今，在六十个国家里有近五百个气象站接收照片。接收到新照片，气象学家们与之前的照片对比。现在气象卫星对预报3-5天的，也许不久的将来，他们可以能够预测一周或更长时间的天气。小题1:细节理解题。根据They are in space它们在太空里，可知答案选D。小题2:细节理解题。根据The satellites take pictures of the atmosphere, because this is where the weather forms. 卫星拍大气的照片，因为天气是在那儿形成的，可知答案选C。小题3:细节理解题。根据From the pictures, the scientists can often say how the weather will change.从照片上，科学家们能判断天气会如何变化，可知答案选B。小题4:细节理解题。根据 Soon, perhaps, they may be able to forecast the weather for a week or more ahead.也许不久，他们可以能够预测一周或更长时间的天气，可知答案选D。小题5:主旨大意题。根据Now satellites are helping to forecast（预报）the weather.现在卫星帮助预报天气 ，可知答案选D.

一年二次 [词典] biannual; [例句]一年二次的报告为您概括各地区、各种主要设备的预测信息。A bi-annual report that summarizes equipment forecasts by region and major equipment segment.

选A。A。gloomy 低迷的；B。 miserable 痛苦的；C。shadowy 阴影的；D。obscure 模糊的。

financial result[会计] 财务计算结果双语例句1.He first to brief us the latest financial progress of the company base on the recentquarterly financial result. 他首先向我们通报最新的进展情况，财务公司的基础上最近的季度财务结果。2.With these features, realistic forecasts of the financial result at the end of theaccounting period can be made at any time. 这些功能的，现实的财务预测的结果结束时的会计期间，可在任何时间。

17题A意为印度是~~~ B印度的人口

It"beautiful and it can fly. It love flowers.

自己和自己说的话矛盾？？

butterfly effect Point attractors in 2D phase space.The butterfly effect is a phrase that encapsulates the more technical notion of sensitive dependence on initial conditions in chaos theory. Small variations of the initial condition of a dynamical system may produce large variations in the long term behavior of the system. This is sometimes presented as esoteric behavior, but can be exhibited by very simple systems: for example, a ball placed at the crest of a hill might roll into any of several valleys depending on slight differences in initial position.Recurrence, the approximate return of a system towards its initial conditions, together with the sensitive dependence on initial conditions, are the two main ingredients for chaotic motion. They have the practical consequence of making complex systems, such as the weather, difficult to predict past a certain time range—approximately a week, in the case of weather.HistorySensitive dependence on initial conditions was first described in the literature by Hadamard and popularized by Duhem"s 1906 book. The term butterfly effect is related to the work of Lorenz, who in a 1963 paper for the New York Academy of Sciences noted that "One meteorologist remarked that if the theory were correct, one flap of a seagull"s wings could change the course of weather forever." Later speeches and papers by Lorenz used the more poetic butterfly. According to Lorenz, upon failing to provide a title for a talk he was to present at the 139th meeting of the AAAS in 1972, Philip Merilees concocted Does the flap of a butterfly"s wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas? as a title.IllustrationThe butterfly effect in the Lorenz attractor time 0 ≤ t ≤ 30 (larger) z coordinate (larger) These figures show two segments of the three-dimensional evolution of two trajectories (one in blue, the other in yellow) in the Lorenz attractor starting at two initial points that differ only by 10-5 in the x-coordinate. Initially, the two trajectories seem coincident, as indicated by the small difference between the z coordinate of the blue and yellow trajectories, but for t > 23 the difference is as large as the value of the trajectory. The final position of the cones indicates that the two trajectories are no longer coincident at t=30. A Java animation of the Lorenz attractor shows the continuous evolution. Mathematical definitionA dynamical system with evolution map ft displays sensitive dependence on initial conditions if points arbitrarily close become separate with increasing t. If M is the state space for the map ft, then ft displays sensitive dependence to initial conditions if there is a δ>0 such that for every point x∈M and any neighborhood N containing x there exist a point y from that neighborhood N and a time τ such that the distanceThe definition does not require that all points from a neighborhood separate from the base point x.Popular mediaThe concept of the Butterfly effect is sometimes used in popular media dealing with the idea of time travel, though not always accurately. For example, in the 1952 short story by Ray Bradbury, "A Sound of Thunder", the characters are determined not to change anything in the past—but in reality their mere presence could be enough to change short-term events (such as the weather), and could also have an unpredictable impact on the distant future.In many cases, minor and seemingly inconsequential actions in the past are extrapolated over time and can have radical effects on the present time of the main characters. In the movie The Butterfly Effect, Evan Treborn (Ashton Kutcher), when reading from his adolescent journals, is able to essentially "redo" parts of his past. As he continues to do this, he realizes that even though his intentions are good, the actions he takes always have unintended consequences.The Butterfly effect was also invoked by the fictional mathematician, Ian Malcolm, in both the novel and film versions of Jurassic Park. He used it to explain the inherent instability of (among other things) an amusement park with dinosaurs as the attraction.

　　最简单实用的均线系统，在K线图中你看到的MA5叫5日均线，MA10叫10日均线，MA30叫30日均线，MA60叫60日均线，MA120叫120日均线，MA250均线叫250日均线等。均线代表的是平均买卖股价，5日均线MA5代表的就是5天内成交的平均股价，如此类推，60日均线代表的就是3个月成交的平均股价。　　假如，当前股价在5日线上，代表近5天买入的赚钱了，就是指短线来说（5天）市场有赚钱效应；此时的5日均线可分为向上走和向下走两种情形，很明显，向上走就表明随着时间延续，平均股价的趋势逐步上移，意思是指股价有上升趋势，向下走的后市就不那么强;如果5日均线上穿10日均线，可以推断5日均线向上走，同时将带动10日均线向上走，那么，就是指短线来说（10天）市场有赚钱效应;如此类推，5日均线上穿60日均线，将带动60日均线向上走，那么，就是指中线来说（60天）市场有赚钱效应。　　日K线中有很多的均线，比较常用的如5日，10日，20日，属于短期均线;30日，60日，属于中期均线;120日，250日，属于长期均线。应用均线进行买卖操作，首先明白自己属于长线还是短线，而相应采用不同的均线;20日均线是强庄维系的股价系统，30日均线是多方维护的最后防线，这两种线可以特别关注；在一段走势中，明显有一根均线在维持着股价，例如发现每次股价的低点都在5日均线上止步，可以跟踪这根均线，一旦跌破这根均线立即卖出。（反过来，在一段走势中，明显有一根均线在压制着股价，例如发现每次股价的高点都在5日均线下止步，可以跟踪这根均线，一旦突破这根均线立即买入。）这一些是用均线进行买卖操作的基本要点。

已发表学术论文400多篇，其中SCI收录69篇、EI收录102篇；获省自然科学一等奖1项及省部级科技进步奖励6项。2007年当选为国际水文科学协会（IAHS）副主席；担任国际“水文科学杂志(HSJ)”副主编、美国土木工程学会（ASCE）水文工程杂志（JHE）副主编；2009年当选为国际水资源协会（IWRA）主席，也是中国学者首次担任国际知名水组织主席；2011年获“国际水资源管理杰出贡献奖。1.国际学术刊物近发表的SCI/EI/ISTP论文[1] XIA Jun, WANG Gangsheng, Tan Ge, YE Aizhong & G.H. Huang, 2005, Development of Distributed Time-Variant Gain Model for Nonlinear Hydrological Systems，Sciences in China Ser.D Earth Sciences, 48(6),713-723（SCI检索）[2] Xia Jun & Zhonggen Wang,, 2004, The Renewability of Water Resources and its Quantification of the Yellow River in China, Hydrological Process, Special Issue,Vol.18 2327-2336（SCI检索）[3] Trevor Boston & Xia Jun, 2004, Improving Calculated Discharge from TOPMODEL using Antecedent Precipitation Index and Discharge -Correlated Rainfall: Calibration Results, Hydrological Process, Special Issue Vol.18,2313-2326（SCI检索）[4] Liu Changming & Xia Jun, 2004, Water Problems and Prospective of Hydrological Research in the Northern Part of China, Hydrological Process, Vol.18, 2197-2210.（SCI检索）[5] Liu Changming & Xia Jun, 2004, Water crises and hydrology in North China, Hydrological Process, Special Issue Vol.18, 2195-2196（SCI检索）[6] Z.Kundzewicz & Xia Jun,2004, Editorial: Towards an improved flood preparedness system in China, Hydrological Science Journal , 49(6) 941-944.（SCI检索）[7] ZHANG Shifeng, LIU Changming, XIA Jun, 2004， 降雨径流过程驱动因子的室内模拟实验研究（Experimental study on rainfall-runoff：Indoor imitation experimental study on driving factors of rainfall-runoff process），中国科学 D 辑 地球科学 （Sciences in China Ser.D Earth Sciences ）, 34(3):280-289（SCI检索）[8] Quanxi Shao, Heung Wong, Jun Xia & Wai-Cheung Ip, 2004, Models for extremes using the extended three-parameter Burr XII system with application to flood frequency analysis, Hydrological Science Journal , 49(4) 685-703.（SCI检索）[9] Huang, Y.F.,et al. and J.Xia, 2003, GIS-based distributed model for simulating runoff and sediment load in the Malian River Basin, Hydrobiologia -The International Journal on Limnology and Marine Sciences (Kluwer Academic Publishers), 494(1-3), 127-134 (SCI检索).[10] Chen, Z., G.H. Huang, C.W. Chan, L.Q. Geng, and J. Xia, 2003, Development of an expert system for the remediation of petroleum-contaminated sites, Environmental Modeling and Assessment (Kluwer Academic Publishers), 8(4), 323-334 (SCI检索)[11] Xia Jun, 2002, A system approach to real time hydrological forecasts in watersheds, Water International, 27(1), 87-97 .（SCI检索）[12] Xia Jun, & Y.D.Chen, 2001, Water problems and opportunities in hydrological Sciences in China, Hydrological Science Journal , 46(6) 907-921. （SCI检索）[13] Xia Jun, et al.,2001, An integrated Hydro-ecological Modeling Approach Applied to the Lake Bositeng Basin in China, Water International, 26(1), 105-118 . （SCI检索）[14] Xia Jun, et al., 2001, An Integrated Planning Framework for Management of Flood-Endangered Regions in the Yangtze River Basin, Water International, 26(2), 153-161. （SCI检索）[15] Xia Jun, & Gordon G H,Huang, 2001, Flood prevention and watershed management: An overview, Guest editors for Special Issue, Water international, 2001 (6) , 151-153（主编国际水专刊的综述论文，SCI检索）[16] Huang, G.H., and J.Xia ,2001, Barriers to sustainable water quality management, Journal of Environmental Management, 61(1), 1-23.（SCI检索）[17] 薛金凤，夏军，梁涛等，颗粒态氮磷负荷模型研究，水科学进展，2005年5月，第16卷（3期），334-337（EI 检索）。[18] 占车生，夏军，丰华丽等，河流生态系统合理生态用水比例的确定，中山大学学报（自然科学版），2005年3月，第44卷（2期），121-124（EI 检索）。[19] 朱一中，夏军，王纲胜.西北地区水资源承载力多目标情景分析与评价，中山大学学报（自然科学版），2004年3月，第43卷（2期），64-67（EI 检索）。[20] Xia Jun, 2004, A nonlinear system approach and distributed hydrological modeling, The 6th International Conference on Hydroinformatics, Liog, Phoon & Babovic (eds), World Scientific Publishing Company(ISBN 981-238-787-0),246-253. (ISTP)[21] Zhu Y.Z., Xia J. & Wang G.S., 2004, Assessment of water resources carry capacity of Northwest China, The 6th International Conference on Hydroinformatics, Liog, Phoon & Babovic (eds), World Scientific Publishing Company(ISBN 981-238-787-0),1269-1276. (ISTP)[22] Zhan C.S , Xia J. & Liu B.L., 2004, The WEBGIS-based hydrological information service system & secondary developmen, The 6th International Conference on Hydroinformatics, Liog, Phoon & Babovic(eds), World Scientific Publishing Company (ISBN 981 – 238 – 787 – 0 ),1971-1978. (ISTP)[23] Xia Jun et al., 2003, Water Problems and sustainability in North China, IAHS Pub. No. 280 (Water Resources System- Water Availability & Global Change), UK, 12-22.（EI，ISTP检索）[24] Xia Jun, Tan Ge, Li Xin & Zhu Yizhong 2003，Hydrological Modeling of Imperfect Gauged Basins: A New Challenge，IAHS Publication no.279, 145-150,UK, (EI，ISTP检索)；[25] Xia Jun, Wang Gangsheng, Tan Ge，2003，A distributed hydrological model applied to Heihe mountainous basin in western China. IAHS Publication No.282, 268~274, ，UK (EI，ISTP检索) 。[26] Xia Jun & Wang Zhonggen et al.,2003, A quantifying method of water renewability: Case study of the Malianhe watershed in China, Proccedings of the 1st International Yellow River Forum on River Basin Management,Vol.1,111-121,The Yellow River Conservation Publishing House (ISTP检索)。[27] 张利平、陈万春、夏军等，干旱灾害成灾过程数值模拟，武汉大学学报（工学版），2003年，36卷第4期，24-27（EI检索）。[28] 叶守泽，夏军，水文科学研究的世纪回眸与展望，水科学进展，2002，1(13)，93~104（EI检索）[29] 窦明，谢平，夏军，汉江水华问题研究，水科学进展，2002，5(13)，557-561（EI检索）[30] 窦明，谢平，夏军，南水北调中线工程对汉江水华影响研究，水科学进展，2002，6(13)，714~718（EI检索）[31] Xia Jun, et al., 2001, Enlightenment on sustainable management of water resources from past practices for the Bositeng Lake basin in Xinjiang, China, IAHS Pub. No. 260 (Regional Management of Water Resources), UK , 41-48. （EI ,ISTP检索）[32] Xia Jun, et al., 2001, Eco-environment quality assessment: a quantifying method and case study in Ning Xia, arid and semi-arid region in China, IAHS Pub. No. 266 (Hydro-ecology: Linking hydrology and Aquatic Ecology) , UK , 41-48.（ISTP检索,）2．国内核心刊物发表的论文[1] 夏军、刘孟雨、贾绍凤等，华北地区水资源及水安全问题的思考及研究，自然资源学报，第19卷第5期，2004年，550-560[2] 夏军、王中根、左其亭，生态环境承载力的一种量化方法研究：以海河流域为例，自然资源学报，第19卷第6期，2004年，786-794[3] 夏军，现代水文学的发展与水文复杂性问题研究，水问题的复杂性与不确定性研究与进展（夏军主编），北京：中国水利水电出版社，2004年12月[4] 夏军，王中根，穆宏强，可持续水资源管理评价指标体系研究（I），长江职工大学学报，2000，17（2），1-7[5] 夏军，王中根， 生态环境承载力评价方法及其在海河流域的应用研究，自然资源学报，2004年第6期。[6] 夏军，引江济太工程与太湖流域水资源可持续利用刍议，中国水利，2004年第2期，32-35（CSCD刊物）。[7] 夏军，王纲胜 等，分布式时变增益流域水循环模拟，地理学报，2003，58(5)，789-796。[8] 夏军，王中根，刘昌明，黄河水资源量可再生性问题及量化研究，地理学报，2003年，58（4），534-541。[9] 夏军，丰华丽，谈戈，生态水文学-概念、框架与体系，灌溉排水学报，2003年，22（1），4-10。[10] 夏军，孙雪涛，丰华丽， 西部地区生态需水问题研究面临的挑战，中国水利，2003年第5期 A刊，57-60（CSCD刊物）。[11] 夏军，孙雪涛，中国西部流域水循环研究进展与展望，地球科学进展，2003，18（18），58-67[12] 夏军，丰华丽，2003，生态水文学的发展与面临的挑战，水问题研究与进展，湖北科学技术出版社，396-407[13] 夏军，薛金风，应用于非点源污染模拟的分布式径流模型研究，中国自然资源与全面建设小康社会（陈传友主编），北京：中国水利水电出版社，水科学进展，2003年，124-131[14] 夏军，华北地区水循环与水资源安全：问题与挑战, 地理科学进展，2002，6(21)，517-526[15] 夏军，朱一中，水资源安全度量：水资源承载力的研究与挑战，自然资源学报，17（3），2002年5月，262-269[16] 夏军，谈戈，全球变化与水文科学新的进展与挑战，资源科学，2002年5月，24（3），1-7[17] 夏军，郑冬燕，刘青娥，西北地区生态环境需水估算的几个问题研讨，水文，2002，5(22)，12—17[18] 夏军，水文科学发展与思考，中国地理学会水文专业委员会年会“21世纪中 国水文科学研究的新问题新技术和新方法”，科学出版社，2001年9月，18-27[19] 夏军，水文学科发展与思考，中国科学基金，2000年9月，14（5），293-297[20] 夏军，窦明，水体富营养化综合水质模型及其应用研究，上海环境科学，2000，19（7），302-304[21] 夏军，湖北省的水问题与可持续发展，科技进步与对策，2000，17（114），17-193.出版专著与教材（1）专著[1] 夏 军, 水文非线性系统理论与方法， 武汉大学出版社，2002.11.[2] 夏军，左其亭，邵民诚，博斯腾湖水资源可持续利用（理论.方法.实践），当代杰出青年科学文库，北京：科学出版社，2003年[3] 夏 军, 灰色系统水文学, 华中理工大学出版社, 2000.6.[4] 夏 军, 区域水环境及生态质量评价, 武汉水利电力大学出版社, 1999.6.[5] 胡国华，夏军，赵沛伦等，多泥沙河流水污染与模拟控制——理论、方法及应用，湖南师范大学出版社，2002.6.（2）主编专集/教材[6] Liu Changming & Xia Jun, (ed.), Water Crises & Hydrology in North China, Hydrological Processes, 18(12), 2004.[7] Xia Jun & Gordon G H,Huang(ed.), Flood Prevention and Watershed Management, Water International, 26(2), 2001.[8] Xia, Jun and Takeuchi,K. (ed.). Barriers to Sustainable Management of Water Quality and Quantity, Hydrological Science Journal, 44(4), 1999.[9] 夏 军, 水问题的复杂性与不确定性研究与进展持续水资源管理研究与实践, 中国水利水电出版社, 2004.12.[10] 夏 军, 许新宜, 胡宝清, 可持续水资源管理研究与实践, 武汉测绘科技大学出版社, 1999.4.[11] 夏 军等, 水利水电工程研究与实践, 武汉工业大学出版社, 1998.3. [12] 魏文秋, 夏 军, 现代水文学与水环境科学研究与进展, 武汉水利电力大学出版社, 1999.4. [13] 夏 军参编, 工程水文学, 水利电力出版社, 2000.5.

store- 贮藏、储备、存储（动词）商店、店铺（名词） stall-货摊、畜栏（名词） 停止、停转（使动词）

天空

相对应微观经济学对单个商品，几种商品（包扩劳动力、原材料等）的供给需求状况提出的整个国民经济的攻击需求状况

============== 美国快餐的文化 ============== Fast food is the term given to food that can be prepared and served very quickly. While any meal with low preparation time can be considered to be fast food, typically the term refers to food sold in a restaurant or store with low quality preparation and served to the customer in a packaged form for take out/take away.Outlets may be stands or kiosks, which may provide no shelter or seating, or fast food restaurants (also known as quick service restaurants). Franchise operations which are part of restaurant chains have standardized foodstuffs shipped to each restaurant from central locations.The capital requirements to start a fast-food restaurant are relatively small, particularly in areas with non-existent or poorly enforced health codes. Small, individually-owned fast-food restaurants have become common throughout the world. Fast food restaurants with higher sit-in ratios, where customers can sit and have their orders brought to them, are known as fast casual restaurants.In the United States alone, consumers spent about US$110 billion on fast food in 2000 (which increased from US$6 billion in 1970). The National Restaurant Association forecasts that fast-food restaurants in the U.S. will reach US$142 billion in sales in 2006, a 5% increase over 2005. In comparison, the full-service restaurant segment of the food industry is expected to generate $173 billion in sales. Fast food has been losing market share to so-called fast casual dining restaurants, which offer more robust and expensive cuisines.In 2006, the global fast food market grew by 4.8% and reached a value of 102.4 billion and a volume of 80.3 billion transactions. In India alone the fast food industry is growing by 40% a year.McDonald"s is located in 120 countries and operates 30,000 restaurants around the world. On January 31, 1990 McDonald"s opened a restaurant in Moscow, and broke opening day records for customers served. The Moscow restaurant is the busiest in the world. The largest McDonald"s in the world is located in Beijing China.There are numerous other fast food restaurants located all over the world. Burger King has more than 11,100 restaurants in more than 65 countries. KFC is located in 25 countries, 800 of them located in China. Subway has 29,186 restaurants located in 86 countries, the first international location opened in December of 1984 in Bahrain. Pizza Hut is located in 26 countries, with 100 locations in China. Taco Bell has 278 restaurants located in 12 countries besides the United States.Fast-food chains have come under fire from consumer groups, such as the Center for Science in the Public Interest, a longtime fast-food critic over issues such as caloric content, trans fats and portion sizes. Some of the concerns have led to the rise of the Slow Food movement. This movement seeks to preserve local cuisines and ingredients, and directly opposes laws and habits that favor fast-food choices. Proponents of the slow food movement try to educate consumers about what its members considers the richer, more varied and more nourishing tastes of fresh, local ingredients that have been recently harvested.Trans-fats which are commonly found in fast food have been shown in many tests to have a negative health effect on the body. A recent study fed monkeys a diet consisting of a similar level of trans-fats as what a person who ate fast food regularly would consume. Both diets contained the same overall number of calories. It was found that the monkeys who consumed higher level of trans-fat developed more abdominal fat than those fed a diet rich in unsaturated fats. They also developed signs of insulin resistance, which is an early indicator of diabetes. After six years on the diet, the trans-fat fed monkeys had gained 7.2% of their body weight, compared to just 1.8% in the unsaturated

小题1:A小题2:C小题3:B小题4:D小题5:D 文章主要讲了卫星运用于气象小题1:A细节题，由第一段第二句They are in space可知卫星是在太空中的，故选A小题2:C细节题，文章第三句The satellites take pictures of the atmosphere（大气）, because this is where the weather forms.可知天气形成于大气层，故选C小题3:B细节题，文章第二段第二句When they receive new pictures, the meteorologists compare them with earlier ones.可知气象学家在比较之后才报天气故选B小题4:D细节题，文章最后一句Soon, perhaps, they may be able to forecast the weather for a week or more ahead可知气象预报可提前七天或更久，故选D小题5:D文章理解题，本文主要讲了卫星运用于天气预报，故选D

headcount是一个英语单词，可以用作名词，可以翻译为点人头数总人数、职员总数，等等。headcount[英][u02c8hedkau028ant][美][u02c8hu025bdu02cckau028ant]n.点人头数总人数，职员总数;例句:1.Atthesametime,heinstalleddraconianandwildlyunpopularemployee-ratingsystemstoreduceheadcountandimproveproductivity.与此同时，他实施了严格且不得人心的员工评级体系，以减少员工人数，提高生产效率。2.Itspresentheadcountis3000.目前该行员工数量为3000人。3.Againstthatbackdrop,investmentbanksarerevisingtheirheadcountrequirementsonalmostaweeklybasis.在这种背景下，投资银行几乎每周都在修改员工编制要求。4.Headcountwillbebalancebasedonbusinessrequirement.人头将根据业务需要去平衡。5.Itsreportforecaststhatbankswillbeunwillingtooperateatreducedprofitabilitylevelsandwillrespondwithmassiverestructuring,includingfurtherheadcountreductionsinsomeareasandswingeingcutsincompensationacrosstheboard.报告预测，投行将不愿在盈利水平降低的情况下经营，将通过大规模重组来应对这一情况，包括在一些领域进一步裁员以及全面大幅减少薪酬。

MACD（Moving Average Convergence Divergence）中文名称：平滑异同移动平均线，是由Gerald Appel首先在Systems And Forecasts一书中发表，主要是利用长短期的二条平滑平均线，计算两者之间的差离值，作为研判行情买卖之依据，投资者可利用MACD选股。1．MACD的计算公式 MACD在应用上应先行计算出快速（一般选12日）移动平均数值与慢速（一般选26日）移动平均数值。以这两个数值作为测量两者（快速与慢速线）间的"差离值"依据。所谓"差离值"（DIF），即12日EMA数值减去26日EMA数值。因此，在持续的涨势中，12日EMA在26日EMA之上。其间的正差离值（+DIF）会愈来愈大。反之在跌势中，差离值可能变负（-DIF），也愈来愈大。 至于行情开始回转，正或负差离值要缩小到怎样的程度，才真正是行情反转的信号。MACD的反转信号界定为"差离值"的9日移动平均值（9日EMA）。在MACD的指数平滑移动平均线计算公式中，都分别加重最近一日的份量权值，以现在流行的参数12和26为例，其公式如下： 12日EMA的计算：EMA12 = 前一日EMA12 X 11/13 + 今日收盘 X 2/13 26日EMA的计算：EMA26 = 前一日EMA26 X 25/27 + 今日收盘 X 2/27 差离值（DIF）的计算： DIF = EMA12 - EMA26 然后再根据差离值计算其9日的EMA，即"差离平均值"，"差离平均值"用DEA来表示。 DEA = （前一日DEA X 8/10 + 今日DIF X 2/10） 计算出的DIF与DEA为正或负值，因而形成在0轴上下移动的两条快速与慢速线。为了方便判断，用DIF减去DEA，用以绘制柱状图。 2．MACD的应用 MACD在买卖交易的判断上，有如下几个判断准则：1）DIF向上突破DEA为买进信号，但在0轴以下交叉时，仅适宜空头补仓。 2）DIF向下跌破DEA为卖出信号，但在0轴以上交叉时，则仅适宜多头平仓。3）DIF与DEA在0轴线之上，市场趋向为多头市场。两者在0轴之下则为空头市场。DIF与DEA在0轴线之上时，一切的新入市策略都以买为主，DIF若向上突破DEA，可以大胆买进，向下突破时，则只适宜暂时获利了结，进行观望。DIF与DEA在0轴线以下时，一切的新入市策略都以卖为主，DIF若向下跌破DEA，可以大胆卖出。如果向上突破时，空头只宜暂时补空。4）价格处于上升的多头走势，当DIF慢慢远离DEA，造成两线之间乖离加大，多头应分批获利了结，可行短空。 5）价格线呈盘局走势时，会出现多次DIF与DEA 交错，可不必理会，但须观察扇形的乖离程度，一旦加大，可视为盘局的突破。 6）"背离信号"的判断，不管是"差离值"的交叉，或"差离值柱线"都可以发现背离信号的使用，所谓"背离"即在K线图或条形图的图形上，价位出现一头比一头高的头部，在MACD的图形却出现一头比一头低的头部，这种背离信号的产生，意味着较正确的跌势信号。或者，在K线图或条形图的图形上，价位出现一底比一底低，在MACD的图形却出现一底比一底高，这种背离信号的产生，意味着较正确的上升信号。利用MACD 测市，能够帮助投资者判断目前的市道是牛市还是熊市。而于投资者而言，最困难的是莫过如何确定目前趋势的主流，即目前市道是牛市还是熊市。小牛市短线策略，大牛市长线部署，对于熊市亦然。如果能确认目前为牛市走势，则一切入市部署应以多头策略为主导。因此，聪明的技术分析者都会在牛市下采用长期持有短期卖出，以及在熊市下采用长期抛售短期买入的入市策略。二、EYPMA指数平均数指标公式概说① 计算第一条EXPMA：EXPMA1＝（C－XP）×0.15+XP。② 计算第二条EYPMA：EXPMA2（C－XP）×0.04+XP。③ C＝当天的收盘价④ YP＝前一天的EXPMA第一次计算时，因为还没有EYPMA值，所以XP用前一天的收盘价代替。0.15及0.04的来源是由2÷（N＋1）得来，而一般N的参数值设定在12及50。EXPMA（Exponential Moving Average）中文名称：指数平均数，本指标原属于均线型指标，但是EXPMA是以交叉为主要的讯号，因此，本书将其归入趋向型指标。因为移动平均线计算时，必须采用前N天的价格综合平均，平均线的走向，受制于前N天的价格高低，而不是以现在的价格高低决定平均线的走向，因此，其交叉讯号经常落后行情数日时间。例如股价已经反转下跌，但是，移动平均线因为平滑的关系，采用前N天的价格，为计算因子的结果，造成均线仍然持续上升，无法迅速反应股价的下跌，等待均线相对反应的时候，股价早已下跌一段幅度。为了解决移动平均线落后的问题，分析学家另外寻求EXPMA及VMA…等类型均线指标，用以取代移动平均线，EXPMA 正是在这种环境下被广泛采用。另一方面，EXPMA可以随股价的快速移动，立即调整方向，有效地解决讯号落后的问题。剑 法①当第一条0.15的EYPMA由下往上穿越第二条0.04的EXPMA时，将对股价造成推升力道。②当第一条0.15的EXPMA由上往下穿越第二条0.04的EYPMA时，将对股价造成推降的力道。③股价由下往上碰触EYPMA时，很容易遭遇大压力回档。④股价由上往下碰触EXPMA时，很容易遭遇大支撑反弹。破 绽① 股价瞬间行情幅度过大时，EXPMA的交叉讯号，经常买在最高价或卖在最低价。② 常态行情中，依EYPMA交叉讯号买进股票，股价却经常立即回档；而依照讯号卖出股票后，股价又经常立即反弹，这一点造成投资人相当大的困扰。破 解①瞬间行情波动太大时，可以将日线图转变成半小时或一小时图，能够迅速抓住时效性。②判断瞬间行情将大幅波动时，放弃使用EXP-MA指标，改为CCI搭配ROC使用。秘 籍①当EXPMA向上交叉时，不必立即采取买进的动作，股价会先形成一个短暂的高点，然后微幅回档至0.14EYPMA附近，此时正是最佳的买进时机。②当EXPMA向下交叉时，不必立即采取卖出的动作，股价会先形成一个短暂的低点，然后微幅反弹至0.04EXPMA附近，此时正是最佳的卖出时机。

中文是：标准矩阵