阿啵呲嘚-
摘 要Abstract
社会消费品零售总额反映一定时期内人民物质文化生活水平的提高情况，反映社会商品购买力的实现程度，以及零售市场的规模状况。
The total retail sales of consumer goods reflect the improvement of people"s material and cultural life, the accomplishment of social commodity purchasing power, and size and situation of retail market in a given period of time.
由社会商品供给和有支付能力的商品需求的规模所决定，是研究人民生活水平、社会零售商品购买力、社会生产、货币流通和物价的发展变化趋势的重要资料。
As being determined by supply and effective demand of social commodity, it is always considered to be the important information of living standard, retail goods purchasing power, social production, currency circulation, and prices trend.
我国是一个经济大国, 经济一直保持平稳较快增长, 城乡居民收入都稳步增长, 消费品需求旺盛, 人们生活水平比较高。
China, an economic giant in the world, has kept a steady and relatively fast growth in the economy, with the steady increasing in incomes of urban and rural residents, the great demand of consumer goods, and the mostly qualified living standard.
其中社会消费品零售总额是反映人民生活水平提高的一个很好的指标。所以对社会消费品零售总额做分析就比较重要。
In terms of the improvement of living standard, effective data must includes the total retail sales of consumer goods, thus the analysis on it should be obviously essential.
但是影响社会消费品零售总额的因素有很多, 包括收入、住房、医疗、教育以及人们的预期等很多因素, 而且这些因素之间又保持着错综复杂的联系。因此运用数理经济模型来分析和预测较为困难。
However, the work of analysing and predicting becomes tough by mathematical economic model, for the influencing factors and their complex correlations, including the income, the housing, the healthcare, the education, the expectation, and the like.
所以本文采用ARIMA模型对我国2002-2010年的社会消费品零售总额进行分析, 包括判断平稳性，对序列进行差分，对差分平稳序列拟合ARMA模型。得出其规律性, 给出短期预测值，并给出预测值的置信区间。
Therefore, this paper gives the analysis on China"s total retail sales of consumer goods during the years between 2002 and 2010, with an ARMA model, which contains stationarity estimate, the difference of the time series, and the ARMA-fitting of the difference stationary series. Then a conclusion of regularity could be reached, which could give predicted values of short-term with the confidence interval.
关键词Keywords
平稳序列 stationary time series
差分 difference
ARMA模型 ARMA model (i.e. model of Autoregressive moving average)
预测值 predicted value
置信区间 confidence interval
楼上各位我服了……温馨小提示：你们下次用机器的时候先把“摘要”2字中间的空格去了，这样的话翻译出来的就是Abstract 而不是pick to，这样看起来会不那么白痴……
可可-
摘 要：社会消费品零售总额反映一定时期内人民物质文化生活水平的提高情况，反映社会商品购买力的实现程度，以及零售，市场的规模状况。
Pick to: social total retail sales of consumer goods reflect certain period of people"s material and cultural life, raising the level of the realization of reflecting the social commodity purchasing power, and the degree of the scale of retail, market situation.
由社会商品供给和有支付能力的商品需求的规模所决定，是研究人民生活水平、社会零售商品购买力、社会生产、货币流通和物价的发展变化趋势的重要资料。
By the society commodity supply and demand for commodities with the ability to pay of the scale, is determined by the people"s living standards, social studies retail goods purchasing power, social production, currency and commodity price trend of the development of the important material.
我国是一个经济大国, 经济一直保持平稳较快增长, 城乡居民收入都稳步增长, 消费品需求旺盛, 人们生活水平比较高。
Our country is a economic powers, economic remained steady and fast growth, the income of urban and rural residents is growing steadily, consumer demand, people life level is high.
其中社会消费品零售总额是反映人民生活水平提高的一个很好的指标。
Among them is a reflection of social total retail sales of consumer goods in people"s living standards improved a good index.
所以对社会消费品零售总额做分析就比较重要。
So for social total retail sales of consumer goods is important for analysis.
但是影响社会消费品零售总额的因素有很多, 包括收入、住房、医疗、教育以及人们的预期等很多因素, 而且这些因素之间又保持着错综复杂的联系。
But the impact social total retail sales of consumer goods in a number of factors, including income, housing, health care, education and people"s expectations and many factors, and these factors and maintained between the intricacies of the contact.
因此运用数理经济模型来分析和预测较为困难。
Therefore using the mathematical economic model to analysis and forecast more difficult.
所以本文采用ARIMA模型对我国2002-2010年的社会消费品零售总额进行分析, 包括判断平稳性，对序列进行差分，对差分平稳序列拟合ARMA模型。
So this paper adopts ARIMA model to our country 2002-2010 social total retail sales of consumer goods, including judge stability analysis of series of finite difference stationary sequence, fitting the ARMA model.
okok云-
Pick to: social total retail sales of consumer goods reflect certain period of people"s material and cultural life, raising the level of the realization of reflecting the social commodity purchasing power, and the degree of the scale of retail, market situation. By the society commodity supply and demand for commodities with the ability to pay of the scale, is determined by the people"s living standards, social studies retail goods purchasing power, social production, currency and commodity price trend of the development of the important material. Our country is a economic powers, economic remained steady and fast growth, the income of urban and rural residents is growing steadily, consumer demand, people life level is high. Among them is a reflection of social total retail sales of consumer goods in people"s living standards improved a good index. So for social total retail sales of consumer goods is important for analysis. But the impact social total retail sales of consumer goods in a number of factors, including income, housing, health care, education and people"s expectations and many factors, and these factors and maintained between the intricacies of the contact. Therefore using the mathematical economic model to analysis and forecast more difficult. So this paper adopts ARIMA model to our country 2002-2010 social total retail sales of consumer goods, including judge stability analysis of series of finite difference stationary sequence, fitting the ARMA model. Given that its regularity, short-term prediction, and gives the confidence interval of prediction.
平稳序列：Stationary sequence
差分：difference
ARMA模型：ARMA model
预测值：prediction
置信区间：Confidence interval
上面的那谁你都没翻译完
LuckySXyd-
Social total retail sales of consumer goods reflect certain period of people"s material and cultural life, raising the level of the realization of reflecting the social commodity purchasing power, and the degree of the scale of retail, market situation. By the society commodity supply and demand for commodities with the ability to pay of the scale, is determined by the people"s living standards, social studies retail goods purchasing power, social production, currency and commodity price trend of the development of the important material. Our country is a economic powers, economic remained steady and fast growth, the income of urban and rural residents is growing steadily, consumer demand, people life level is high. Among them is a reflection of social total retail sales of consumer goods in people"s living standards improved a good index. So for social total retail sales of consumer goods is important for analysis. But the impact social total retail sales of consumer goods in a number of factors, including income, housing, health care, education and people"s expectations and many factors, and these factors and maintained between the intricacies of the contact. Therefore using the mathematical economic model to analysis and forecast more difficult. So this paper adopts ARIMA model to our country 2002-2010 social total retail sales of consumer goods, including judge stability analysis of series of finite difference stationary sequence, fitting the ARMA model. Given that its regularity, short-term prediction, and gives the confidence interval of prediction.
平稳序列：Stationary sequence
差分：difference
ARMA模型：ARMA model
预测值：prediction
置信区间：Confidence interval
tt白-
pick to： Social total retail sales of consumer goods reflect certain period of people"s material and cultural life, raising the level of the realization of reflecting the social commodity purchasing power, and the degree of the scale of retail, market situation. By the society commodity supply and demand for commodities with the ability to pay of the scale, is determined by the people"s living standards, social studies retail goods purchasing power, social production, currency and commodity price trend of the development of the important material. Our country is a economic powers, economic remained steady and fast growth, the income of urban and rural residents is growing steadily, consumer demand, people life level is high. Among them is a reflection of social total retail sales of consumer goods in people"s living standards improved a good index. So for social total retail sales of consumer goods is important for analysis. But the impact social total retail sales of consumer goods in a number of factors, including income, housing, health care, education and people"s expectations and many factors, and these factors and maintained between the intricacies of the contact. Therefore using the mathematical economic model to analysis and forecast more difficult. So this paper adopts ARIMA model to our country 2002-2010 social total retail sales of consumer goods, including judge stability analysis of series of finite difference stationary sequence, fitting the ARMA model. Given that its regularity, short-term prediction, and gives the confidence interval of predictio：Confidence interval
cloudcone-
Pick to: social total retail sales of consumer goods reflect certain period of people"s material and cultural life, raising the level of the realization of reflecting the social commodity purchasing power, and the degree of the scale of retail, market situation. By the society commodity supply and demand for commodities with the ability to pay of the scale, is determined by the people"s living standards, social studies retail goods purchasing power, social production, currency and commodity price trend of the development of the important material. Our country is a economic powers, economic remained steady and fast growth, the income of urban and rural residents is growing steadily, consumer demand, people life level is high. Among them is a reflection of social total retail sales of consumer goods in people"s living standards improved a good index. So for society ? total retail sales of consumer goods for analysis